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tv   Closing Bell  CNBC  December 24, 2012 12:00pm-2:00pm EST

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i've worked with everyone. maybe if there is one out there peter gabriel i like i think is fantastic and has that voice i like to work with where do you go from here? what is the next album? >> we're going to tour, next year is all about touring. we're going all over the world. back to eastern europe in march and then to asia and all across maybe australia and in the summer but it's all about touring and then maybe at the end of next year do another record. >> you're going into your tenth year of touring. you're going to do another 300 days? hey, chris -- >> i feel very lucky to be able to do it. you know, at the end of it what do you do? i just feel very lucky to be able to tour like i do. >> let's mention you're playing new york for the next three weeks. >> we do 21 nights. this is our eighth year in a row in new york. we don't have to get on an airplane. >> sold out at the blue note. two shows a night. 21 nights in a row. come down. shows are 8:00 and 10:30. there are usually a couple seats left because people can't make it to new york at the last minute but call the club or whatever.
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very, very famous legendary jazz club the blue note. >> usually room at the bar. >> there's always room at the bar. >> we'll see you in an hour for the closing bell. thanks so much. >> thanks, bob. speaking of the market shortened session one more hour. let's head over to maria at post 9. >> thanks, carl. hi everybody. welcome to the closing bell. i'm maria bartiroma at the new york stock exchange. no, your watch is not wrong. the closing bell ringing three hours early today at 1:00 eastern for christmas eve. hi, bill. >> hey, maria. i'm bill griffith here at cnbc world headquarters. a down day not terrible, light volume as you might imagine on this half day. the dow down about 40 points right now. 46-point decline at 13,144. all the other major averages lower as well. the nasdaq at this hour down about ten points at 3,011 and the s&p 500 down 4.25.
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>> certainly volume on the light side today. though we're facing light volume there is still money to be made in these markets. remember after the closing bell rings in less than an hour there are only four trading days left in 2012. amazing. >> we know what happens after that right? >> let me ask you bill. i know you've always thought a deal would happen in the 11th hour. seriously. did you really think here we would be on christmas eve sitting with no deal in sight? >> a little secret. we had a pool going in the studio. i was betting they would do it today which didn't happen. i still think it can happen before the end of the year. congress comes back to work and i still think they can get this done. >> i gave up hope weeks ago, months ago actually. let's find out how you want to be positioned from today's closing bell on out to the end of the year. we've got craig hodges with us of the hodges fund and our own
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rick santelli. another guest will join us shortly. nice to have you on the program. craig, kicking off with you, in terms of your small cap portfolio, any changes as we go into year end? what would be the best strategy? >> historically, if you are at work you can make some really good buys. you have the january effect, the tax loss selling going on all month. this year is an unusual year in that you have also not just tax loss selling but you have people taking gains on stocks that they've held for years that they're trying to take advantage of, the 15% capital gains rate. we've seen a lot of that. the point is there's been a lot more selling this december. i look for several stocks to bounce back in early january. >> you are on hold until you can see the whites of their ey in washington. right? i mean, you're waiting to see
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what happens with this fiscal cliff? >> i am. i tell you, i think that the christmas gift people are getting right now is to sell above 13,000. we were surprised we're not getting a deal. i'm surprised the market's as firm as it is and it is very easy to overthink this. well, must be firm. the bulls are strong. hey, we go higher. i think that's not the read at all. i think the initial reaction we got when they sent the house of representatives home on thursday night is what we're going to see when they don't get a deal done to the end of the year. i think there is no way. >> you think the market has it wrong here by being this high. >> i do. i think ultimately we're being tropical depression up by the 90 billion a month in fed liquidity but i think that comes home to roost probably as we get closer to the end of the year. the only way we have a shot to get a deal at the end of the year or maybe even early in january is if we have market pressure. right now the market is supplying no pressure to these politicians. so there is no reason for them
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to do a deal. >> in other words what you're saying is there is an enormous amount of room for real disappointment in this market which is what i've been expecting as well. >> yes, maria. >> give me a sense of how significant a selloff we might see in stocks if we don't get a deal by year end. >> well, look at. i know many people can't watch the futures but if you look at the tape, the minute they sent the house of representatives home the es, e mini contract dropped i think 30 points. >> right. >> in a very, very short period of time. that is the air pocket that i believe we have under this tape. it would not surprise me at all to see a thousand points come off the dow very similar to what we saw after the election when we don't get a deal. this comes home. people don't realize what this is going to do. this is not healthy. this is not good. so what we're going to get is this wakeup call and i think people are getting a gift right now, opening the screens, take some off the table. at least place protective stops so you know where you will get out. >> rick santelli, is that how
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you read the message of the market right now? >> you know, i think the market's major movement with regard to the lack of a solution on the fiscal cliff has been more of what we've seen not more of what we think we're going to see. i'm referring specifically to some of the special dividends, some of the tax issues, some of the buy backs, some of the way, you know, states and trusts are being manipulated and moved to deal with the potential worst case scenarios. i think in terms of the market our guests just referred to some of the volatility. you know, as congress called it a day or as the boehner bill didn't pass the plan b. but i remember the t.a.r.p. vote. that was some real movement. >> yes. >> we didn't have that type of movement. we still may. but i think in the end, i think especially the treasury markets focused on the bigger picture of all the issues that we need to address on reform and i think the equity markets definitely are fueled by some of those fed programs even though you know i'm not a big fan of them.
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>> you know what? it's interesting that you mention that. that is the expectation that we could see a move like we saw that day with t.a.r.p. when the market was disappointed that the t.a.r.p. may not, may or may not happen. the market i believe was down 900 points, rick. 800 to 900 points. then it came back but ended down 700. >> right. so the other night, 200 and some points on the dow futures. >> right. >> i think we had about 40 points worst case on the s&ps if i recall. these are big numbers but when it was all said and done it was nothing like it was that day. >> so how reversible is the damage that could be done to the markets? because when you really look at the fundamentals of this economy and the market it's not so bad. right, quint? i mean, given the fact that housing has probably bottomed, the amounts of cash on balance sheets for the corporate sector stronger than ever. so you've got the fundamentals of a pretty good economy in the u.s. if we don't do things that are self-inflicted but that's what we're doing.
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>> right. ultimately that is what we're faced with. we're faced with fiscal forces that could undo a lot of that. but rick makes a good point with the volatility. we were voting on t.a.r.p. which would produce liquidity for the market. we have the backdrop of that. so i think these initial bursts, you know, they're not going to be as volatile as that time period but i still think we could pick up steam. look, ultimately if we start a trend lower, we saw volatility after the presidential election. we saw what happened, a thousand points came off the dow at a very short period of time. i think people are being lulled into complacency starting to think, well, we don't have that. it is not like it was. it could very well be very quickly. so again, i'm not trying to cry wolf. what i'm trying to say is people should be prepared. selling is not this evil thing. this protection, making sure they have levels at which they would get out. >> craig hodges, you are buying what you perceive to be value and you feel this market is under owned right now.
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you expect it to go higher. we are talking about austerity programs coming out of washington. what is going to propel this market higher if we're going to get a slowdown in the economy next year? >> the bottom line, i think the market is a lot smarter than any of us on this panel and i've been really amazed how resilient the market is here. it is holding up extremely well. we may not get a deal -- i doubt we get a deal friday. i think the market has already taken that into account. the bottom line, stocks aren't over priced. there is a lot of opportunity, at hodges capital we see companies, you know, trading at seven and eight times earnings that are growing three times that rate. like a cirrus logic that is going to earn 350 next year, stocks at 28. that's about eight times earnings. you know, there is a lot of opportunity out there. >> right. >> i don't think you can treat the market as just the market. look at each stock individually. there's opportunity. it's under owned.
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there are chances to make some serious money next year. look at this year. this year, hardly any good news. our phone is up 20% this year. the -- >> right. 15. >> yeah. i mean, you can't just look at the news and say, okay. stocks aren't going to do well because of that. that is already factored in. the market is smarter than us and i think there is a lot -- the markets are under owned. everybody is on the sidelines. now is the time to be buying. >> all right. >> maria, let me ask you a question. if mitt romney would have won would there have been a fiscal cliff issue? >> i don't know. the president has certainly been -- has had a hard time bringing in the two sides together. in terms of leading. >> that's my point. the guest just gave me an epiphany. the reason the market isn't acting upact ing spongier is i think the sell off after the election was
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probably in part due to the very over viewed simplistic notion if the president won there was going to be these issues we're dealing with referred to as the fiscal cliff. if mitt romney would have won probably not so much. >> probably not so much. >> the market has dealt with it. >> you're right. >> we are still talking about the same dysfunctional congress no matter who was in the white house though. >> exactly. i guess it all decides on which side of the dysfunctional aisle you sit on. >> thanks so much, guys. have a happy holiday everybody. thank you very much. we'll see you soon. we have 50 minutes before the closing bell sounds for the day and we got a market that is worsening going into the close. down about 53 points on the dow industrials. >> we seem to be at a fiscal cliff stalemate but it is not keeping lawmakers on either side of the aisle quiet. when we come back we go live to washington for the latest and hear from one republican congressman on where he is willing to compromise at all. >> as last-minute christmas gift orders pour into online retailers which is better off, amazon or best buy?
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coming up we'll look at both stocks and which you may want in your stocking this year. >> if you're traveling any time this week listen up. we'll take you live to the world's busiest airport for a status check all coming up on this last hour of the trading day on christmas eve on "closing bell." [ male announcer ] you are a business pro. omnipotent of opportunity. you know how to mix business... with business. and from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle. and go. you can even take a full-size or above. and still pay the mid-size price. i could get used to this. [ male announcer ] yes, you could business pro. yes, you could. go national. go like a pro. she also likes to ride her bike. she knows the potential for making or losing money can pop up anytime. that's why she trades with the leader in mobile trading. so she's always ready to take action,
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less than a week before we go flying over the fiscal cliff, there is still no deal in sight. hampton pearson in washington with the very latest on that. what do you have? >> how you doing? we are down to single digits, seven days and counting if you will, to even get a short-term fiscal cliff deal done. we heard president obama on friday handed what we might call a bare bones plan c ahead of january first. extension of the bush tax cuts for those making $250,000 or less and an extension of unemployment benefits. while it could be a quick turn-around from that hawaiian vacation for president obama and congressional leaders, expectations they could be back in washington later this week, all eyes now on the senate where republicans are split on whether it's possible to make a deal with the obama white house. >> the president's statement is right. no one wants taxes to go up on the middle class. i don't want them to go up on
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anybody. i'm not in the majority of the united states senate. he is the president of the united states. >> when i listen to the president i think the president is eager to go over the cliff for political purposes. i think he sees a political victory at the bottom of the cliff. he gets all this additional tax revenue for new programs. he gets to cut the military which democrats have been calling for for years. and he gets to blame republicans for it. >> as a practical matter it's already too late for employers to accurately withhold taxes from january paychecks unless there is no change. so workers will feel immediately that 2% hike in the social security tax in those first january pay checks. bill? >> hampton, good to see you. merry christmas. we'll see you later. >> merry christmas to you. >> our next guest says he is unlikely to support any deal the president and speaker can come up with. republican senator joe walsh from illinois joins us right now. >> merry christmas. >> nice to see you. alan greenspan told maria not too long ago that in his view maybe going over the cliff would be a small price to pay and that
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the recession it might bring in for a couple quarters in order to get our fiscal house in order, are you of like mind how you feel about this? >> i'd like to avoid going over the cliff. i do concur with mr. greenspan that i think this fiscal cliff is a classic, washington, dysfunctional manufactured crisis. we created this. the bigger cliff is the fact that this country is broke. we're beyond $16 trillion in debt and unless we get serious and get our hands around that our kids and our grand kids will never recover. >> congressman, what are you looking for? you said you're unlikely to support a deal made by the president and speaker boehner. so what is it that you want that you're not getting? >> what i won't do maria is vote for any tax increases on small business, on any american. we've already voted in the house to extend the bush tax rates for
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every american. we've done that twice. in the senate, they've voted to extend the bush tax rates for people below $250,000. i can't support that, but why not bring both bills up before the house and see which one the house and the senate will support? >> but with such a stringent attitude, i mean, you're just like the other side. you know, your way or the highway. you won't say yes to any tax increases. for the good of the country isn't it better to just give a little on something so we can come together and get a deal done so we don't see all these layoffs january 1 and into january and we don't see the largest tax increase on all americans virtually all income levels so we actually get this uncertainty behind us? where are you going to give on? >> not to support something, mar maria, that is not for the good of the country. not to support something that will actually hurt the country. look, we're in this place right now because washington is dysfunctional. this president is only
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campaigning. republicans in congress are too afraid to do what's right because too many just want to get re-elected. and the democrats don't care about spending. so what we ought to do, maria, if you want to really do something about this, if the president was sincere, extend the bush tax rates for six months for everybody and make sure washington gets serious about these spending issues. >> but to the spirit of maria's question, both sides have demonized each other. i mean, you're saying that the democrats don't care about spending the way they would see it is they're taking care of the little guy who would be hurt by cuts in social security and medicare spending. they say that the republicans on the other side as they demonize you guys you're protecting the rich people out there by not raising their taxes. you know, let'sce it. nobody is going to be happy with whatever deal comes out of washington, because it is going to include some compromises that people right now ideologically
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don't want to make. >> right. in fact the president may ultimately get his tax increases. but we got to be serious. facts are facts. you can raise the bush -- the tax rates for people over $250,000 and you might. you might pay for six to eight days worth of federal spending. this isn't serious. we've got to get serious and the democrats aren't serious and the president is not either. if you want to get serious you have got to talk about spending and they just don't want to do that. you and i both know and when you go off the air in a couple minutes with me you know that raising taxes on people who make a million dollars or more won't do any good. you know that. >> that is not meant to be the whole solution though sir. that is only one piece of the process. >> but it won't -- what if it's a hurtful piece? what if it doesn't go to any aspect? >> to speak to your point about
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raising taxes on small business, the speaker's point the other day when he said he would be willing to raise taxes on a million dollars plus, his point was it won't hurt the small business person out there. >> well, it will. it'll impact 300,000 to 400,000 small businesses. so, in fact, it will. i give the speaker credit for doing his best to try to negotiate with this president. i mean, look, you two. i think the president will probably get his tax increases. >> right. >> i can't support them but i think his bill should come to the floor of the house and the floor of the senate. >> yeah. >> and maybe there are enough democrats and republicans who will support that. >> all right. let's talk about reality. since we all know everything is going to happen automatically on december 31st, how significant are you expecting the layoffs to be in january given that we are going over the cliff and how easy will it be to retrace this and put tax rates at a better level or, you know, more
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constructive level and put spending cuts in place once they have to retract what happened automatically, the spending cuts and tax increases in january? >> well, that is a wonderful point. i don't know how easy it will be. i would guess that the market has already factored in so much of this dysfunction in washington already. i think much of the market is expecting us to go into january and try to retroactively fix things. i'll be honest with you. i don't think there is enough will in either party to fix the long-term endemic problems in this country and so long term i have huge concerns that washington, both parties, won't get their house in order and eventually that's going to impact the economy. >> all right. we'll leave it there. thanks for your insights. >> thank you. merry christmas. >> see you soon. >> 40 minutes before the closing
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bell sounds for the day. ahead of tomorrow's holiday. the dow-jones industrial average saw a worsening here down about 60 points as we approach this final 35 minutes of trading bell. >> shares of amazon up about 50% so far this year while shares of best buy are down about 50%. could the holiday shopping season be a game changer? we'll find out. look at the charts coming up after the break. then it's being billed as the most expensive christmas dinner ever. it includes $8,000 worth of pistachios and a $60,000 bottle of champagne. guess what? no one's buying. that's coming up.
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a holiday present for all of us. gas prices at their lowest level of the year. how long will it last? let's find out from bertha coombs at the nymex. >> if you're heading over the river and through the woods and driving you're paying about the same as you paid last year per gallon though today we did see gasoline futures higher. looking at metals we have gold closing in about five minutes. had been fractionally positive much of the day but as the dollar has strengthened a little bit here this afternoon gold rolling over into negative and what has been basically a very negative trade today for metals. obviously light trading ahead of the holidays and traders are saying the big issue is going to
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be what happens with these fiscal cliff talks if they do resume here after the christmas holidays? as far as energy is concerned for brent the third straight session to the down side. toward the end of the day, did make it positive on gasoline futures. we did have nat gas selling off after the big rally last week traders saying the longer term forecast doesn't look so cold so natural gas giving it up here ahead of the christmas holiday. merry christmas both to you and maria. hope you have a wonderful one. >> you too, bertha. thanks. >> thank you so much. right back at you. have a great holiday. call it a tale of two retailers. best buy shares down 50% this year while amazon shares are up 50%. so no matter where you do your shopping this holiday, which stock would you rather buy? let's start talking numbers.
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our guests, good to see you guys. carter, let's talk about these moves. would you rather buy into the amazon rally? >> sure. or buy into the best buy selloff? >> you know, not to be scrooge or anything, but we don't like either of them. basically, simply put, we don't like best buy because it is so bad and amazon because it is so good. and just as you started the segment here, one up 50% one down 50% and actually a long-term comparative chart which we have here really shows the extreme divergence between the two. obviously one is a great winner and one is a great loser. let's start with best buy. i mean, anything that moves from the top left to the bottom right of your screen in a chronic way is sort of a dying business in trouble. and just wouldn't do it. just wouldn't touch that kind of weakness. by contrast, amazon on the other hand meaning nothing short of stupendous but has become a high wire act. this thing has gone 30 in the
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'09 lows to almost 270, 900% versus the s&p up a hundred. at some point they are going to have to deliver results let's say under the hood that match the results the share price appreciation. >> what do you think? make the case for these stocks on the fundamental side of things. >> i love the line amazon is so good and best buy is so bad. i mean, i would say it is almost the flip side. best buy is actually a really well run company in a completely hopeless space and there while i don't own the stock i think it is likely it will be taken out as a private buy by its founder which means you could actually have some bump in the stock even though carter's entirely right it's been in a completely lousy stock to own and really impossible business to be in. on the flip side with amazon, look. amazon is eslings taking over the online world and while there will be some kind of competitor eventually my own personal anecdotal behavior which is indicative of everybody's would suggest that amazon is dominating -- i think i bought my entire christmas on amazon this year. >> well i agree it is
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dominating. revenue of $15 billion a year or something. where is the profit? >> the only thing you have to worry about is the valuation of the stock, either 2,000 pe or 200 depending how you calculate the earnings. that is alarming right? it does go up and down even as it's gone up. so i would wait for that opportunity of pulling back 10% which it might do and i think, you know, you're not going to do badly having this for a very long time. >> right. well i think those are all very valid points. for best buy literally it will be an event even as the founder can come back as he is trying to do and get the thing acquired if you will. then surely there will be a bump. that is a heck of a card to wait on. but amazon i think just as zack reiterated it is a question of can they make money? never, a lot of profitless companies in this world. people who are biotech names or upstarts but this isn't an upstart. it's a $115 billion market cap. there's never been a company that large that couldn't make money that. >> is really interesting. they're just not focused on
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making profit but generating revenue. >> that is the plan. the bulls say that is the plan and ultimately they'll take over the whole world but at some point as zack said 2,000 pe what have you, you got to deliver. >> all right. we'll leave it there. thanks so much. have a great holiday. we'll see you soon. >> thanks. >> over to you, bill. >> just a reminder we are heading toward the close. 30 minutes of trading left on this christmas eve. and the dow all the major averages trading lower, down 59 points on the industrial average. now stop online shopping right now especially you, zack. don't click buy until you hear our next segment. online retailers it turns out are charging some customers more depending on their location. we'll get to the bottom of that for you coming up next. let's check out this video. not even sub zero temperatures could keep these people in moscow away from santa. but will a lack of a fiscal cliff deal hurt your portfolio's chance of a santa claus rally this year? we'll find out next.
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then we take the pulse of retail this christmas eve with ms. jane wells. jane? >> bill, it's beginning to look a lot like 2007 says one analyst. is that good or bad? and which discount every store has today. only one number. we'll have it after the break.
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welcome back. we all know that the web is supposed to give shoppers the best deals at the click of a button. right? well, a "wall street journal" report finds that's not always the case. in fact, some online retailers are charging consumers more depending on where they live and how close they are to competitors. take a look at these price comparisons at staples. two shoppers bought the same swingline stapler but the price difference was nearly 11%, bill. >> depending on where they -- if the person lived closer to a competitor of staples, they got the lower price. now, can this price discrimination backfire onion line retailers? nicholas carlson a business insider thinks so. he joins us to make his case. i guess it back fires if you find out you paid more. if you paid less it is not such a bad deal, right? >> that's right. merry christmas. >> merry christmas.
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>> absolutely. you know, we've heard from people when they see these things happen, these days with social media they start tweeting about it and they start putting on their blogs and then people like me pick it up and we write a story about it. >> right. >> it could really spiral out of control for sure. >> but, i mean, is there going to be back lash if shoppers find out that they paid more than others for the same items, just that, as we saw with amazon back in the year 2000? what do you think about that? >> well, absolutely. i think that this is something we should just get used to. it is going to be part of reality. but i think that consumers are going to be upset about it when they see it. you know, i think if you find out you paid a dollar more for a product that someone else paid, you know, a dollar less for yes you'll be upset. it is also an opportunity, probably a great spot for maybe a startup to come in and sort of, you know, take some algorythms and look at the websites and see if there is a good deal but i think consumers will be upset about this for
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sure. >> but still. do you blame the retailers? i think it's smart marketing. you know, if you can take advantage of the situation, that is part of what it means to be a merchant. you price something according to what you think the market will bear depending on where the person lives, if they live closer to a competitor. maybe you're more likely to look for that cheaper price at staples. once they find out what the consumer will do is go elsewhere and they'll have to adjust accordingly, right? >> absolutely. you're totally right. it is not that much different than how, you know, i live in new york and i pay twice as much for milk as someone in texas. >> right. >> it just has to do with the market. and i think that is what we'll have to get used to. consumers, you know, here is the thing. they'll be doing this and 99% of the time consumers have no idea it's going on. it is smart marketing for sure. absolutely. >> but i mean e-commerce was supposed to be the great equalizer. right? by allowing users to get the
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best prices online. this is not serving that purpose. >> no. that's true. it's not serving that purpose. but i think overall e-commerce is still beneficial to the consumer. i think this promise is being fulfilled. for one, by the way, go to google or go to amazon and search for products and do a little price comparison. >> sure. >> you know, i did a quick search. in "the wall street journal" story there is the example of the swingline stapler. i did a quick google search and found staplers that cost $6 all the way to $40 and all varieties and colors. i did an amazon search and found as much variety. the fact is consumers have tons of variety. from a different perspective, we have e-commerce start-ups that are disrupting brick and mortar retail all the time. you were just talking about amazon and best buy. look at what is going on with west buy. the harris poll found 40% of consumers go into a best buy and they do this thing called show
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rooming where they look at the phone and see and they leave and go spend $200 on amazon. i think people are still, they're definitely finding that e-commerce is working out for consumers. >> trust me. the new ceo of best buy is well aware of that. >> you have to be a really smart shopper. there are all of these discrepancies all over the place. >> is there a way that this online price discrimination, if you want to call it that, can work in favor of the consumer? >> in "the wall street journal" story we're about, absolutely. how it worked was people who live far away from a staples and other office supply stores like that, they don't have as much competition so they get charged more. people who live near staples and live near other office supply stores actually get a discount. they get a bigger discount because staples knows they'll end up being a little bit more bargain conscious. so yes. for some customers it certainly works out that they get a better deal. >> st. nicholas carlson, merry christmas. thanks for joining us. >> merry christmas. thanks, guys. >> see you later. >> let's look at traditional
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retail. how is it looking offline today? let's get in with jane wells in glendale, california doing her share of shopping today. over to you. >> maria, this is the galleria, one of the largest malls in l.a. it has been open a few hours. we have moderate traffic. no bags there. i see c's candy, a macy's bag there. game stop. what the mall is telling us is in the last few days people are arriving later and staying a lot later, quote, our food court folks can't shut down. but are people spending is the question? the sign of the day is 50% off. no self-respecting store is without such a discount today. tracking into the weekend though suggests it is beginning to look a lot like christmas 2007 says craig johnson of customer growth partners. that is not good. he tells me now like then sales have decelerated all through december. he now expects only 2.8% sales growth, the slowest since the end of the recession and morning star's paul swinlin had this
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take on the last weekend. >> in general people were a little bit flat, a little tepid, a little nervous. i guess there's still last night and today but, you know, it wasn't -- it was busy but not gang busters. >> now, they're already starting the blame game if this turns out to be a lack luster holiday and some blame it on a generally gloomy mood among americans especially after the horrible shooting in connecticut. marshall cohen at the mpd group says retailers had problems long before the tragedy. he says, quote, the lack of sales is due to the lack of excitement in merchandise and to blame it on this terrible disaster upsets me. and then of course there's everybody's concern about debt. they're avoiding it. >> christine, delinquency rates that are still very, very low compared to the last ten years. so i don't think that consumers are going wild this year. >> we heard that a lot. finally, it's even been a little
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slow they say at saks 5th avenue, on 5th avenue in new york city. our producer took these pictures. sw retail advisers says you could, quote, in saks hear a pin drop during a 60% sale going into saturday. but, bill and maria, i was in the very store in new york last week, my first time at saks during this time of the year. if that is slow for christmas, i don't want to know what busy is. i couldn't even get down the aisle. >> by the way, jane wells, you mentioned c's candy. unbelievably, they opened some kiosks in malls in the northeast here this year. >> you're kidding. finally. >> it's fantastic. >> what's next? in and out burger is coming next. that can be the only logical next step. >> we can only hope. please. bring more of california to the northeast. we love that. >> happy holidays, jane. >> thank you. >> you too guys. merry christmas. 15 minutes before the closing bell on this christmas
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eve we have a market under pressure down about 51 points on the dow jones industrial average. >> up next we ask does santa hate google? >> oh, no. >> of course not. santa doesn't hate anything. but the north american aerospace defense command known as norad did drop google maps from the santa tracking system this year. now google is tracking the sleigh on its own. but which one is the real santa tracker? we will compare and contrast coming up. but first, just moments until the bell. after today's show there are just four trading days left in the year. we'll find out from one market watcher how to be positioned going into the new year with no debt deal on the table in washington. [ male announcer ] it's simple physics... a body at rest tends to stay at rest... while a body in motion tends to stay in motion. staying active can actually ease arthritis symptoms.
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but this idea isn't fragile. when times get tough, it rallies us as one. every day, more people believe in the american idea and when they do, the dream comes true. we're grateful to be a part of it. if you're just joining us a friendly reminder we're just minutes from closing out the shortened trading day. the bell rings in about 15 minutes. after that there are only four trading days left in the year and as maria will remind you there is still no deal to avoid the fiscal cliff. so what is an investor to do with their money right now?
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>> let's bring in our guests and our own bob pisani. good to see you guys. thanks for joining us. kevin, what is your take in terms of investing into year end and going into 2013? >> i just think you have to be realistic about the fiscal cliff issue. we don't know what the magnitude of the damage is going to be to gdp next year but what we do know is that the current track run in terms of fiscal sustainability just isn't right. we can't run trillion dollar deficits for a year and expect to get away with that long term. so i think there is a trade-off here in terms of some penalty to growth next year. longer term there are benefits though and going into the year i think you just have to have maybe a little cash in the portfolio but be looking to put money to work in companies that are going to survive, good balance sheets and consistent profitability. stocks are cheap relative to bonds so i don't want to get too defensive here. >> you were with us at the top of the hour and made clear you were on hold until you see something about a fiscal cliff
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resolution of some kind. is there nothing you would buy between now and the end of the year? >> nothing. maybe some inverse etfs, bill, quite honestly. i want to see not just fiscal cliff resolution but i want to see q 1 earnings. i'm sorry. q 4 earnings. last quarter's earnings were not all that exciting. we really saw the european effect take hold in a lot of these companies really laboring and a lot have bounced back. i think again it is this liquidity driven move that we've seen in the marketplace and i think, you know, despite it being wrong myself, that is fine, i think the market is getting it wrong and i think the greatest christmas gift people are getting here is the dow above 13,000 and the ability as our previous guest as kevin said to fake sotake some money off t table. i don't think it means rushing into bonds but sitting on some cash and waiting things out. i think there will be a better opportunity down the road. >> what is your take in terms of capital gains and dividend taxes? as far as i'm concerned i don't think it is the ordinary income tax increases that are going to
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do much or have much of an impact as much as the investment related taxes will like when dividend taxes go to 44% automatically. >> yeah. >> which is going to happen when we go over the fiscal cliff. capital gains going up to ordinary income of 39.6. what would you say is a realistic level for those two taxes? >> well, i don't know. >> i mean once they get a deal. >> decide for us, quint. >> yeah. well, probably in the 40s right? i think ultimately -- >> 40s? that is going to be a problem for the market. >> yes, it is. that is why i think running out and hiding into dividend paying stock is not the answer. when this really sets in that we're not going to have a deal the market is going to come off. believe it or not when it comes off those are still the areas that i would look because where are you going to find, you know, an intel for example yielding
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4.5%, loads of cash on the balance sheet, and even if it gets taken down under $20 a share, very healthy company, excellent dividend yield. >> yes. >> so i would rather have that even if i'm paying a higher tax on it than be sitting in cash yielding nothing. but it only is at better prices. i think we do come in from here. >> robert, what is going on on the floor, buddy? >> if i could just add to that, i think it's also important to recognize that there are lots of -- large pools of capital out there not at all affected by the dividend tax. foreign investors aren't and tax shelter money, pensions, i.r.a.s for example are not. those are willing buyers who would buy attractive buy attractive dividend stocks at reasonable prices. >> what do you think capital gains will be at? where do you think capital gains settles out at in. >> i don't know. that's one of the big problems here. but let's assume they go higher. if you assume they go higher to the marginal buyer, who may be a
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pension bond buyer, that change doesn't matter and those pools are far larger than moneys invested in taxable accounts. >> the street definitely is priced in 15 to 20% on dividends and even 15 to 23.6 is what i think the numbers we're talking about on the capital gains. i don't think you will see a lot of movement on those. >> those are the numbers -- >> where did that number come from, 23.6? >> they have been bantered around for a while. >> i bet you're right, bob, because 20% then you add on the obama healthcare, it is actually 3.8. >> the point is, it is not factored in with ordinary income or anywhere close to that. but nobody thinks that will happen. everyone thinks that will end up at 20 or 23.6%. >> nobody also was expecting that we wouldn't have a deal by year-end, right? >> i think that's right. >> i think it is strange -- >> what strange is that plan c
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everyone is discussing seems to be the old plan a which is essentially president obama's offer to increase taxes on top 2%, whether 400,000 or 500,000 and of some small spending changes. that seems to be all anybody is talking about right now. that may be all that we can get through. plan c seems to be the original plan a at this point. >> we are making our way through the alpha bet. thank you, guys. merry christmas, all. >> merry christmas. >> see you later. >> let's get to the nasdaq marketsite. seema mody. >> weighing here on the nasdaq on large cap tech shares, take a look at dell shares moving lower. research in motion continuing its plunge after losing roughly 20% on friday with concerns aroundity revenue service model being the key issue there. aside from that, a biotech stock on the move, a small cap but as you see a commendable run over the past six months, gaining 70%. investors piling in, in
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anticipation of approval. today they got that approval. however the cholesterol lowering drug will contain a boxed warning citing risk of liver toxicity. perhaps that's a reason we are 150eing that stock move lower. on to bright spots, if you can believe it, facebook, best performing stock on nasdaq. raising 2013 forecast. with four days of traysing left. take a look at nasdaq. it is off of its highs, but still outperforming dow jones and the s&p 500. maria? >> all right, thanks so much, seema. we've got about eight minutes before the closing bell sounds on this day on this christmas eve. >> coming up, tracking santa is a little different this year. google has been dropped from the traditional gig. but now google launched its own santa tracker. who has the better? we're going to compare them coming up. i think there is no contest, frankly. >> then jetblue could have an
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even bigger problem that winter storms on its hands. how to tax employees in the face of the fiscal cliff uncertainty. coming up, we will talk with the ceo on how he planes it handle it. listen up because your employer is facing the same challenge and your tax bill could take the hit. >> then we take you live to the world's busiest airp a to find out how jetblue and other carriers are fairing this busy holiday travel day. stay tuned. ♪ santa claus is coming to town ♪ . [ pencil scratches ] [ male announcer ] chevy's giving more. get the best offer of the year -- 0% apr financing for 60 months plus $1,000 holiday bonus cash. plus trade up for an additional $1,000 trade-in allowance. hurry. bonus cash ends january 2nd.
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it's christmas eve, which means children everywhere are tracking santa and his reindeer as they make their way around the world. in years past that meant going to norad, the north american military command center, and following santa using google maps. but norad and google parted ways. >> look at this. this year norad is teaming up with microsoft to track santa and they are using bing. holy cow. but google is tracking santa with their own version. but that's norad. when you look at the google version, i don't know, norad is very impressive. google not so much. looks like pacman or something. go to norad.
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you have a good choice there. >> after the bell, a panel of expert breaking down which retail stocks put green in your portfolio and which ones could drop a big lump of coal in your 2013 gains. stay with us. back in a moment. you won't take my life. you won't take our future.
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they have carb steady, with carbs that digest slowly to help minimize blood sugar spikes. [ male announcer ] glucerna hunger smart. a smart way to help manage hunger and diabetes. she also likes to ride her bike. she knows the potential for making or losing money can pop up anytime. that's why she trades with the leader in mobile trading. so she's always ready to take action, no matter how wily... or weird... or wonderfully the market's behaving... which isn't rocket science. it's just common sense. from td ameritrade. markets closing early this christmas eve. gavel is coming down with the dow down 53 points. have a very merry christmas. i'll see you again on wednesday. here is the second hour of the
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closing bell with maria bart romo. merry christmas, maria. ♪ ♪ >> and we are listening to chris botti who just rang the closing bell. ♪ ♪
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yay, all right. that was grammy award winning artist chris botti. the markets are closing at 1:00 p.m. for the christmas holiday. closing three hours early today for the holiday. still a lot of action to be found on the ny and we are here for you on that. you see a low number in terms of volume. the dow, nasdaq and s&p 500 under selling pressure today on a light holiday volume day. let's dig into the trades, back with us right now, quinton tetro, todd salamoni and rick santelli, and. gentlemen, thank you so much for
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joining us. let me kick it off with you todd, we haven't heard you from. in terms of your investment research going into 2013, what kind of economy are you expecting? it seems like it is likely we good over the fiscal cliff. though some people would say, maybe we get a deal done in the next couple of days. i find it ridiculous that that would be the case. maybe they watch something through, i don't know. going into 2013, what do you think about the economy, what the backdrop for stocks? >> you know, you set it, maria, a lot hinges on the fiscal cliff. and certainly, yes. if you go off the proverbial cliff, taxes going uch and we're already, you know, coming out of a, you know, a slower than normal recovery. so i would expect expectations for the economy to come down. i would expect earnings expectations to come down. but i think if you're a stock investor, yes, there could be a
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knee-jerk sell off in response to all this. but as a stock investor, i think the key to 2013 then is those lowered expectations for the economy, for earnings, could then set up future positive surprises. i mean, really, even before this fiscal cliff, some of the economic reports coming out most recently, gdp, have been better than expected. i think that is a ps as we enter 2013. yes, there is going to be worries if we fall off the cliff. but then again, we could end up with a stronger than expected economy even though expectations -- >> i guess the worry is we good into recession the first half of the year as a result of going over the cliff. you said in the last segment you want to be raising cash here because this market could see a sizeable sell off. talk us to about that. how significant might a sell off be by year end as we go over the cliff? and what's your take on what you just heard from todd? at the end of the day, does this turn no a positive story
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somehow? >> quite possibly, maria, if we actually see something that is going to solve some of our problems which, who knows, if that transpires or not. i think we see a drip into the end of the year. i don't think it accelerates until the first of the year. i think ultimately we do not get a deal done. we go into the first of the year. we start to see credit agencies start to downgrade the u.s. debt. which probably freaks out the global community. we then see the acceleration in the market, which then puts the pressure on the politicians to actually come to the table and do something. so i think invest -- look, investors, the broad investment community, they're not in. we talked about the amount of cash on the side lines. why aren't they in? they are sick and tired of getting burned. they feel like every time they commit and take on risks, they get burned. what going to get them off the side lines and into this market? for more than a trade? a real plan. a real solution. can you tell me that's going to come out of congress?
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i don't think so. go ahead. i was going to say, i think this is an opportunity to raise cash in here. >> kevin? >> yeah. i agree with a lot of what i've heard. i think that ultimately, there is a penalty to growth from the fiscal cliff. the map of it is that there's a penalty. if you look at the uncertainty around this, the economists are uncertain because they don't know where the spending is going to fall and taxes will be raised. they don't know what kind of multiplier to apply to that. they have no idea how to predict what the economy will do. accountant are confused because they don't know what the tax lawis will be, so tax planning will be difficult. investors are caught in the middle of this, multiply that uncertainty making investment decisions. i would say this is one of the most projected problems we've had. we've known about this for years and years. markets anticipated this to a large extent. you've got central banks around the world now involved in
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coordinated expansion of their balance sheet. so i think that even though this thing may come next year, meaning some penalty to growth, there are positives, if you get back on fiscal trajectory that's solid. and since it is already priced in, i think you could end up with a good outcome. >> rack santelli, jump in here, in what you are expecting after the market resumes. after tuesday, markets will be closed, what kind of activity would you expect the rest of the week? >> i think for the rest of this week it is more of the same. very light volume with more of a suspected eye on surprise volatility in the equities and fixed income markets. i think foreign exchange is the place to be. i will build on what the last guest said. we don't know what will happen with the fiscal cliff. even if our country's economics get better, it is like a 70-year-old after a heart attack. he might be doing great, but he
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isn't as spry as a 20-year-old. we know central banks committed. we know avi in japan will raise, we know germany is a big economy. i would pay close attention to cross trades like the euro/yen. i don't think you need to answer the fiscal cliff issues. foreign exchange is a better place to be, even with the manipulation of central banks. >> ed, jump in here in terms of areas that you want to avoid. where do you think the areas of this market are that really get hit the hardest on the fiscal cliff the lack of fiscal cliff deal. >> absolutely. and maria, i think it is important to underscore one fact. no matter what the resolution is on the fiscal cliff, it is not going to help the balance sheet of this country. and the balance sheet of the world economy is in such disarray that the only way we solve this is by growth and all of the economies, not by taxing and not going about it the way
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the government is talking about it. the far and away, the number one place it avoid are long-term interest rates sensitive bonds in the united states. if there was ever an investment more obvious to avoid, i don't know what it is. stay way from government bonds that mature more than five years out and your 401(k) plans, get out of all of your bond funds, equities will rise in 2013. even though the economy is in a terrible position, stocks will rise, bonds will fall in value. stay away from bonds. >> all right, we will watch that. bob, jump in and tell us about the action on the street. down 51 point at close. was that the low, bob? >> no, not quite. we were just a little bit lower than -- take a look the a dow and i will show you. by the way, bonds collapse was the big call of 2012, and spectacularly wrong for a lot of people. but that's still on for a lot of people. there you see, just off of the lows there. maybe about 60-something is the bottom on the dow jones
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investment average. trading shortened by the holiday. material stocks led the way and of course some other stocks, consumer discretion is up. retailers add good day. crude was down. tech was down. microsoft had a tough day. there is concerns about sales of that windows 8 product. hewlett-packard on a down day. research a bit on the thin side. tjx, gap on the upside. nordstrom in the negative. on the intraday basis, five-month vies on the vix. finally if you look at your safe haven place, up on friday, gold and treasury and dollar, not much of a move many here that dollar index, i would check that number there on the dollar index
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but gold didn't do much and you can see the treasury not doing too much. maria, merry christmas. >> thank you, bob. appreciate your time tonight, everyone. see you soon. airline traffic soaring into the holidays. we will hear from jetblue ceo and what you can expect at airports this week. then we find out what is on the stock's take out. if you bought your ticket to hobbit this weekend, you know the box office is red-hot. find out how you can get bks office hits for your portfolio for the new year. is 2013 the time to load up on apple or are there some under the radar names you should pay attention to? we're all over it. back in a moment. ♪ have a holly jolly christmas, it's the best time year ♪ ♪ i don't know if there will be snow ♪ would ever quit. [ male announcer ] along with support, chantix is proven to help people quit smoking. it reduces the urge to smoke. it put me at ease that you could smoke on the first week.
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welcome back. it is a huge travel day, so let's get to the world's busiest airport and check it out. abc's gabe gu teeres is in atlan atlanta. >> good morning, maria. traffic is moving along pretty well. as well as can be expected here
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at the world's busiest airport. no major delays to report or at any of the other major aports. this is a busy week. according to triple a, 93 million americans are expected to travel, the vast majority traveling by car. the ones who can avoid snow and ice, there is good news. gas prices down to an average of $3.24 a gallon. that's down almost 20 cents since last month. the drivers and flyers this week, what they need to pay attention to is this winter storm moving across the country. delayed a bunch of flights in san francisco yesterday. now it is moving over the mountains and expected to start dumping snow in oklahoma later today into tomorrow. there is also the threat of severe weather in the southeast part of the country tomorrow. then snow possibly wednesday into ohio and thursday, snow and possibly freezing rain in northeast. definitely a lot to pay attention to for travellers over the next coming days. right new at airports, no major
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problems to report here in atlanta. back to you, maria. >> thank you so much, gabe. we appreciate it. let's find out how this holiday season is fairing with one of the largest airlines. dave barger is here. thanks for joining us. how is the season going? take us from thanksgiving to where we are right now. how does this season compare to prior years? >> i think this season is so different because of superstorm sandy. so what we saw right after thanks giving is a snap back. we have seen solid demand as we get closer to christmas and new year's. there's no doubt on the back side of the events in late october with super storm. it was a slow demand period for jetblue and for the industry in the northeast. >> it has been a difficult few weeks for jet travel because of the weather. are operations back it normal at this point? have you been able to make up the lost time o or no, not yet? >> absolutely. operations are back to normal. we are operating a record level of flight activity. right in the mid 85% load
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factors. we have seen a nice rebound on the back side of the storm. >> what are bookings looking like going forward? how are you expecting the first half it play out? >> visibility is a little bit after question mark as we move into the future. we are cautiously optimistic. let's face it, a lot has to do with what happens in washington. decisions. it really is. it is not like we didn't see this coming. >> they had 13 months to figure out a plan and they squandered that and here we are with four trading days left in the year. >> you're absolutely right. it is just -- we talk about elected leaders to make decisions, to build confidence. not just for the individual consumer but for corporations. i mean, my gosh. this is why we elected people. we should not be in this situation. >> no leadership. from an executive standpoint, how are you going to deal with that? there is a story out there today that it is too late for employers to withhold the proper amount of income taxes for 2012
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levels because the irs hasn't released the 2013 table. so as an employer, what are you going to do in terms of taking income taxes out of your employee's paychecks. >> we're not changing the level -- >> you're sticking to 2012 levels? >> we are. i'm hopeful there will be some decision bit end of the year. but if anything it is small decision, bigger decisions will have to be made in 2013. that's again what is so disappointing. by the way, there is also this issue with supplemental appropriations going through with superstorm sandy. $64 bill worthion worth of aid. after ska trina this was approved by the house. we are looking for this before we close -- >> that is another piece of legislation up in the air. >> right. and it is all caught up in the fiscal cliff story. >> unbelievable. from a business standpoint bb you have to operate your business regardless of what is going on and the fact we have this uncertainty.
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there is talk ever further consolidation. is that good for travellers or better to get more capacity out of the air? >> i think that more consolidation is good. it'll start to strip out some of the unnecessary capacity. from an industry perspective, what we are looking for is elected leaders and others to understand the importance of air travel. airlines drive flight percentage gdp. we are talking about a policy in 2013. something about rationalization with taxation. you talk about investment and infrastructure. my gosh, infrastructure in the united states on the ground and in the air. by the way, you talk about also being more globally competitive. this is what a national airline policy is all about. regardless of consolidation, that's what we think makes a great deal of sense for 2013. >> when we were in commercial break, i said, wow, that's interesting. i didn't realize that atlanta was the busiest airport in the world. and you said it is about to be taken over by -- >> beijing. these airports around the world, you go to beijing, there's a new
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airport going into beijing. they just had the olympics. shanghai, seoul, dubai. >> they put american airports to shame. >> they do. when we talk about invest many in the air or on the ground, the next generation air traffic con roll system, we use that technology on our phone today. >> but someone said earlier, this country is broke. he can can't decide whether to cut the biggest drivers, which is medicaid, medicare and social security. >> i'm thinking, i would love to see the president use the word airline or aviation in the state of the union. just to talk about an enabler of the economy. when a plane arrives in rochester, minnesota, new york, savannah, georgia wlab that does is huge. let alone seattle and los angeles. so let's optimize investment to enable transportation and infrastructure. there are companies around the
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world. this is a national policy and can you see what is happening. >> we need an oil policy and we don't have an energy policy either. >> that's true. >> energy and cost of labor, have those two assisted up for jetblue. >> it is right about 70%. and we have the youngest fleet and we are a young airline relative to labor cost. right about 70%. >> that's a big number. >> it is a big number. >> you've been expanding. i want to ask you about expanding routes. you are adding seattle to anchorage. international, lighroutes to colombia. why are these international routes so appealing? >> you talk about colombia and cartagena from kennedy. latin-america for jetblue has been really, really positive. people talk about china, middle east. i tell you, latin-america positive for us. we will continue to expand into that part of the world. and we talk about return on investment capital, it has been
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good for us. >> you look at a place like brazil, similar mentality as america as their sentiment is skyrocketing. >> true and there are great airlines. when you look at the largest airline, copa in panama, these are some really solid airlines. there are good things happening in latin-america. >> talk to us about pricing. survey from price show air fairs are 4% higher this december compared to december 2011. is that true at jetblue? this s this a function of less capacity or are more people flying. >> i would share with price line that the inflation adjuster is down 14%. air fares are still a good bargain. we won't talk about forward pricing into 2013. when you talk capacity, gdp,
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cost cost of oil, everything goes into what drives pricing but i think price line is looking at the last year. let's look to 2000. airlines are still a good bargain. >> as a business executive, what do you need to do to respond to washington? we don't get a deal by let's say year end. spending cuts, you will see federal program money going a y away. how does that impact you? >> it all impacts us. it is one of the reasons we are part of the fix the deck hand thing. it was nice to see the story in the new york times today. part of that is also to educate other ceos about the importance of aviation. you talk about the tax environment. 20% of the price of your ticket is taxation. you talk about, again the regulatory environment. thees a ease of regulation in a deregulated environment. global competitiveness. you talk about the pricing of oil. this is why we're down in washington, really trying to educate and ceos elected are
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important in this industry. >> you have players trying to take market share. are you seeing impact of private jet companies sprouting up all over the place, trying to get folks to do private jets? >> really not yet. >> not yet. >> what i hear, is it the corporate jet is not available, i'm flying jetblue. i love that compliment. someone flying from teterboro to west palm beach, they are taking care of that corporation. >> good strategy in teterboro, i'll tell that you. >> it works for us. >> thanks so much pch wonderful to see you and merry christmas. happy holidays. you've heard concerns, tax implications, even recession fears if we go over the fiscal cliff. what happen fess we don't in steve liesman's predictions. have you bought an apple product on-line from anyone? if you have, listen up, snatch and grabs are plaguing apple users throughout the country and
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whether the u.s. goes over the fiscal cliff in a if you days time and for how long. if it's avoided, there's considerable upside for the economy. you can see at least one and maybe two quarters of growth above 3%. the kind of growth putting people back to work and lower the unem ploim rating. why? because business has been holding back investment amid uncertainty unleashing business spending adding to growth for the nation rebounding housing and from the consumer who is hung in there despite tough times. in pafact, we can see uneunempl drop below 7%. the market may be overstating from the central bank in 2013. at the current pace, new round of quantitative easing will add $1 trillion to the balance sheet. i think it'll be less. maybe the $750 billion range. if we get growth and lower unem
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ploi ploimt, that /* /- i'm predicting we end next year with 2% to 2.25% two-year treasury. mortgage rates may be as low as they are going to get. those are my predictions for 2013. >> all right, steve, thank you so much pch john has his eye on 2013 but this one in technology after tech heavyweight apple dropping more than 20% in the past three months. where will tech investors go next year? here is john's tech predictions for 2013. >> in 2013 expect changes for apple. of course, they sell the iphone 5 and 4 and 4s for cheaper but expect a cheaper iphone for emerging markets. if they don't, they will risk losing market share to android. >> apple is not the only one facing strategy shift. expect samsung to go further than before for its own spin on
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android. samsung will lair u neeng media and apps on top of google standard operating system. >> then the issue of traditional computers. expect the decline of the pc to accelerate in 2013 as ept prizes don't bay windows 8 yet and they do snap up other tablets. a shot at stemming the tablet tied with touch screen pcs. but the touch screen pcs at $500 and under won't be until the end of the year. expect at least two of them forced to retool business models to stay in the game. that means hp printer business will have to hold up. blackberry 10 will have to be a hit. and lumia will have to shine or else. thank you, john. buyer beware. apple product in your stocking or on-line may literally be a
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steal. snatch and grab robberies or iphones and eye pads are in bigger number possess. over to you jack. >> hi, maria. if you are exchanging gift it is likely you may have bought or received an apple product in your stocking but it is not just the new gadgets gifted this year. lightly used product are discounted. what kinds of used apple product end up on ebay, craigslist and amazon? some are sold by fanatics that upgrade every time a new device comes out so they just want to get rid of the old device. but many you find on-line are stolen. one security firm estimates the market for stolen cell phones is more than $30 billion. we are talking about a lot of phones here. fcc says 30 to 40% of robberies in some bigger cities involve cell phones. in washington, d.c., they say 38%. in san francisco, nearly 50%. it is difficult to break down
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numbers by brand but police confirmed that theft of apple product is a big business. even a name for it. they call it apple picking. in new york city in september, nypd reported that theft of apple product is up 40% year over year and they expect that that number could rise over the holiday season. so how can shoppers figure out if the devices they are buying or legitimate or stolen? apple phones have serial numbers that can be traced if an apple is lost or stolen. and they can be blocked from further use. you should ask for the number after product and if a seller doesn't want to provide it, it is probably a red flag that something's not right. but maria be i know you just converted to the iphone yourself. you have to be careful. you can can't leave these devices on the counter when you pay. can't leave them on the table because one of the analysts i spoke to said people are walking around, thieves and they look at that as 5 or $600 check right there. >> yeah. it's true. there is an app you can get called find my phone. >> exactly.
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that's one of the apps. you can register with your esn number and if the product gets lost and it turns up somewhere, you can track it. these are kinds of things that you can ask expect this holiday season. >> i did, i got that app. thanks, jack. product is foreign retail analysts. consumers finish up holiday shopping today whose rash registers are plentiful. we have the names you need to pay attention to next. just how much is the christmas dinner cost anyway? five figures? six figures or more? the melon alone is a hefty $4,000. robert frank has the bill break down. stay with us. when you have diabetes... your doctor will say get smart about your weight. that's why there's glucerna hunger smart shakes. they have carb steady, with carbs that digest slowly to help minimize blood sugar spikes. [ male announcer ] glucerna hunger smart. a smart way to help manage hunger and diabetes.
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welcome back. consumers out in full force during black friday shopping weekend. but since then, the mood fizzled as we charge through the last shopping day through christmas. holiday spending probably rose 2.5%. that's down from an earlier forecast of 3.3%. joining me now to help break down the holiday shopping season, t
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season, good to see you everybody. thanks for joining us. eric, you say holiday sales are likely up 2 to 3% from a year earlier. what held shoppers back this year? >> the financial cliff. worries about expectations about their unemployment or being employed. just a general economic malaise. retailers really tried to hold the line discounting. so if you are looking for the 70 to 80% off sale, you had problems finding that at the mall. >> liz, who are the winners and losers? can you go through category for us? >> yes. i think watches are doing with fine, fossil. a lot of the consumers that have been polled said they are shopping department stores more. and there haven't been a lot of must-have items on the toy or game side and i think that's led people to buy apparel. >> so speaking of apparel, i
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know you like urban outfitters. your favorite holiday retailer. why? >> 20% of their sales are dot com. if there is one winner this holiday season, it is going to be a dot com. a major week according to com score last night. up 53%. we think the final push definitely benefitted urban outfitters. >> and then the stock was under selling pressure today. you think that you know, january often times is as busy as the end of the year, right? . >> we do. however, their comparisons ease considerably come january. so we think the opportunity to show acceleration by the time they report the holiday sales release is positive for those investors who have stock. >> eric, any thoughts on the fiscal cliff in terms of how much impact it had. uncertainty of where tax rates will be next year. you think that dictated retail this at the end of this year? >> i think it is any type of
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uncertainty makes it tough for retailers to figure it out here. they will see that immediately on their paycheck and that takes money out of their pocket they can spend on apparel. if you look at higher end consumers dealing with dividends and capital gains, there will be a bigger impact there. i think it'll affect shopping here. and i think it is major uncertainty that retailers an manufacturers have to deal with throughout next year. >> liz, any areas that you think could have been stronger and weren't for any particular reason? where was sort of the outliars on the upside. you said the watch category is strong and where are the weak spots? >> it seems like the more promotional department stores were weaker. kohl's is one i'm worried about. they add weak november. i'm not sure they were able to pull it off in terms of the acceleration they needed in december to bring numbers in line with their expectations. they also add lot of inventory heading into the season so
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that's a worry. and i think that whole moderate department store space is a difficult space. it is about brands right now. about accessories and a lot of that trend is branded and moderate department stores are missing out on that trend. >> in terms of going into the next year, where do you see the -- i mean, terms of the tax situation and pending cuts, do you see anything from the fiscal cliff? >> i think the average consumer doesn't understand the fiscal cliff but i think they watch the news and understand something is wrong and people are very worried about it. i think that the way things stand now, if we do go over the cliff, it is going to be most of an impact for lower end consumer. i think the higher end consumer still has an ability to spend. certainly maybe a bit more cognizant of impaktd opinion but their ability to spend on discretionary categories, it is not hammered to the extent it'll cause major pull back in spending and categories of
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things we cover. maybe they won't buy boats and homes, but i think sweaters and watches will sell good in that category. >> that is certainly a big, big worry but again a worry for lower end consumer. more so than the higher end consumer. if you look at employment trends, high end versus low end, it is a very different story and i think that the lower end consumer is the consumer i'm most worried about if we good over the fiscal cliff. >> what do you think about that, is that the category you would watch as well going over the fiscal cliff? >> the category -- sorry, i missed that maria. >> the group that gets hit hard and the impact to retail is, if we go over the fiscal cliff which seems likely at this point. >> here is where we think you need to be focused on. it is all about innovation on the four walls of the closet. that's where we see bright spots over all. believe it or not, women's
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apparel has been a fantastic category. we think the people most at risk are those that are frankly not innovative at all. innovation wins out supreme and as long as unemployment stays in tact, he think the consumer will continue to spend. >> the expectation is, if we go over the cliff, employment does take a hit. and we go into recession. so i mean, eric, i guess the question is, can you retrace, you know, the damage that was already done by going over the fiscal cliff? >> i think one of the things to look at here is that, and you have to look at the back side, is that retailers in respect of inventories, are in the best position possible. also an anniversary of cheaper cotton prices here. revenue i don't think the big story for this segment in 2013. if they can hold on and if the fiscal cliff is really bad and can't hold on, it won't be as negative as other periods. the simple fact that retailers are in much better shape in
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terms of cost and than they've been in years. if the fiscal cliff is fixed, then have a very strong first half and back half of next year. if it doesn't, we will have a situation that we see at christmas where low sales will not translate to mixed earnings. they will see a lot of margin improvements and upside from there. >> all right. we will leave it there. thank you. i appreciate your time. have a great holiday. >> thank you. up next, hollywood is eyeing what could be the best for the box office ever. pushing towards the finish line is the hobbit. we will find out if the movie momentum should have a starring role in your 2013 portfolio and it could be the moment expensive christmas dinner in history. but why is no one buying? we have details including the $60,000 bottle of champagne. stay with us. there aren't as many films as there used to be. holiday's take is down this
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year, according to the but there have been memorable holiday releases in the past. what are the three biggest christmas block busters of all time? find out next. a body at rest tends to stay at rest... while a body in motion tends to stay in motion. staying active can actually ease arthritis symptoms. but if you have arthritis, staying active can be difficult. prescription celebrex can help relieve arthritis pain so your body can stay in motion. because just one 200mg celebrex a day can provide 24 hour relief for many with arthritis pain and inflammation. plus, in clinical studies, celebrex is proven to improve daily physical function so moving is easier.
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and the and the hobbit took the top spot at the box office this weekend earning nearly $37 million bringing its total earnings now to nearly $150 million. according to, this year's box office receipts are on pace to hit a record 10.8 billion. it is 6% increase from a year ago number. it is fuelling this movie going experience. pau paul, -- >> d it's a tough one. no worries. >> i always get it right and i'm sorry i needed your help today. thanks for joining us. >> good to see you too. >> you run the numbers. also with us is david brain, cpo of epr property, larkest real
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estate trust, including movie theaters. paul, let me kick this off with you. you talk about a perfect storm bringing in the most revenue ever for business. what are the elements of that storm? what's going on? >> well, i think it is the product. it comes down to the movies themselves. and also great in-theater experience. people still love going to the movies with the onslaught of new technolo technologies. it is a competitive world out there and the old fashion idea of going to a movie theater still resonates with people. they still have to go stand if line, have that communal experience. and i knew something big was coming when "the hunger games" in march opened with $152 million in opening weekend. unprecedented for march. that kicked things off. got things going. kwt the lorax was another big march release. and we had a big opening with "the avengers", 2 to 7 million,
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to kick off summer 2012. amazing. >> david, is it just that movies that propelled the box office this year, is that what it is? other good movies or ingredients here? what do you think it is. >> certainly. it makes a difference as paul said. paul also mentioned a very key factor. that's the in-theater experience, continues to improve. we've seen a lot of renovation, a lot of improvements, expanse of menu items. even bars. full barsant aring the space. and a lot more comfort applied that's attracting people over 24 years old to the theater. in terms of you know, larger seats and smaller auditoriums. and a lot of that is going on in our circuit as well as throughout the industry. it is making it attractive to go to the move. >> that's a good point. going to movie theater is
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cleaner and menus and the bar is a great point. do you think this continues? what do you think, paul? what kind of movie are you expecting for movie-going public? >> i'm thinking that 2013 could be bigger than 2012. we've been trying it hard to hit $11 billion at the box office. we have been doing that for the last three years but i think 2013 could be the year you have the next iron man movie, next thor. we have another installment of "the hunger games." we have k"the hobbit." and a lot of sequels too. do people want familiarity when they go to the movies? sometimes they do. the movie "ted" was so original. as david said, it isn't just the movies, it is that in-theater experience. if you don't enjoy being there in that theater, you won't go back. no matter how good the movie is. that's why home theater tried to
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make in-roads but can't. especially now with improvements in the theatrical movie-going experience. >> thank you very much. appreciate your time tonight. >> thank you. >> paul, and david brain, we appreciate your time tonight. happy holidays, guys. up next, we talk luxury and find out what goes into the most expensive christmas dinner is. back in a moment. [ male announcer ] at scottrade, we believe the more you know, the better you trade. so we have ongoing webinars and interactive learning, plus, in-branch seminars at over 500 locations, where our dedicated support teams help you know more so your money can do more. [ rodger ] at scottrade, seven dollar trades are just the start. our teams have the information you want when you need it. it's another reason more investors are saying...
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[ all ] i'm with scottrade. executor of efficiency. you can spot an amateur from a mile away... while going shoeless and metal-free in seconds. and from national. because only national lets you choose any car in the aisle...and go. you can even take a full-size or above, and still pay the mid-size price. now this...will work. [ male announcer ] just like you, business pro. just like you. go national. go like a pro. just like you. excuse me, sir i'm gonna have to ask you to power down your little word game. i think your friends will understand. oh no, it's actually my geico app...see? ...i just uh paid my bill. did you really? from the plane? yeah, i can manage my policy, get roadside assistance, pretty much access geico 24/7. sounds a little too good to be true sir. i'll believe that when pigs fly. ok, did she seriously just say that?
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cnbc editor robert franks is looking on the menu and how much it costs. >> a christmas dinner that may be too rich even for the rich. british chef ben spaulding is auctions off a christmas dinner that he will personally prepare for four people, the cost, get this, $203,000. 80% of the money is going to charity but the dinner so far has had no takers and has attracted a lot of criticism on the web. britain of course, going through a lot of weak economy and
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austerity budgets. spalding himself acknowledged it is a quote hideous amount of money and quote anything costing that much is nuts. he tweeted that he said the charity is a good cause but what do you get for $50,000 per course for starters, there's caviar and $1600 balsamic vinegar. a christmas turkey with beef heart wrapped in gold leaf that's around $10,000. not to mention wine and spirits priced at more than $80,000 and for dessert $4,000 melon and coffee that's predigested and excreted by cats in indonesia. cost per cup, $1,000. you couldn't pay me $1,000 to drink that. you can read more of what's on the menu and the crazy prices on >> all right, robert. thank you so much. robert frank with the latest there. >> back by popular demand.
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many of you know on this day every year, i bring in my baby maltise, ella bella jazz. unfortunately, she is under the weather. she has a little skin allergy and is biting her paws. so i brought in this picture and she wishes you all good tiedings for the year ahead and sorry to miss this christmas eve. there she is. wishing everybody a happy holiday and fantastic 2013. thank you, ella. i had to put the cone on her head because she keeps biting her paws. up next, the lack of action in washington and ripple effects. stay with us. when you have diabetes... your doctor will say get smart about your weight. that's why there's glucerna hunger smart shakes. they have carb steady, with carbs that digest slowly to help minimize blood sugar spikes. [ male announcer ] glucerna hunger smart.
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and finally today, my observation on the consequences and ripple effects of no leadership and bad government policy. here we are on the doorstep after new year and the economy falling off the fiscal cliff. as a result businesses and individuals are facing some of the biggest uncertainties and questions in decades. regardless of what congress does or doesn't do to deal with the year-end fiscal cliff, it is too late for employers to accurately withhold income taxes from paychecks. payroll increases start january 1. but talks drag on of how to ad


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